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Objective@#To understand the situation of rabies in China different human groups. Seasonal ARIMA model is established to make forecasts and to provide suggestions for human rabies controlling in China.@*Methods@#Build a model with data during 2004-2013, and validate the model by data of 2014. Then predict the cases of rabies from 2015-2017.@*Results@#The long term trend is decreasing year by year, while seasonal effect is found that number of the third and fourth quarter are higher than others. The seasonal ARIMA model was built, whose residual are white noise. The RMAE in forecasting of peasants, students and scattered children are 19.10%、49.93% and 68.01%.@*Conclusion@#The decreasing of rabies cases in China with time shows that the measures for control are effective. October for peasants, September for students, August for scattered children are critical period in future for rabies' control. Seasonal ARIMA model is a feasible model in forecasting the cases of rabies in China different groups in some way, error will be reduced by modeling separately for different wave sequence and combining with other models like ARIMA-GARCH.
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Objective@#To investigate the characteristics of hearing loss in occupational noise-exposed workers in automotive manufacturing industry.@*Methods@#According to Technical Specifications for Occupational Health Surveillance (GBZ188-2014) , 530 noise-exposed workers were examined for health and pure tone audiometry during January to June, 2017, and the data were collected for analysis. Poisson regression analysis was used to analysis the relationship between work age and hearing loss.@*Results@#After correction of age and gender, pure-tone threshold of 500, 1 000, 2 000, 3 000, 4 000, 6 000 of the noise-exposed workers in the <3 year-exposure group were 20.15±3.60, 18.80±3.43, 18.54±3.38, 19.10±4.03, 20.32±6.79, 23.48±8.92 dB (A) ; the values in the 3-10 year-exposure group were 20.96±5.38, 19.25±4.76, 19.22±5.29, 20.17±7.50, 21.36±8.88, 25.39±11.60 dB (A) ; the values in the >10 year-exposure group were 20.18±3.67, 18.34±3.60, 18.36±4.25, 18.49±4.41, 20.32±9.24, 22.50±9.57 dB (A) . Poisson regression analysis showed that the relative risk (RR) of hearing loss of the noise-exposed workers compared with the noise-free workers was 4.38 (P<0.05) .@*Conclusion@#The noise-exposed workers in automotive manufacturing industry revealed hearing loss, which was associated with their actual working age of noise exposure.
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Objective To explore the association between low blood lead exposure and nervous system symptoms among the workers exposed to oil paint.Methods Through cluster sampling,workers with occupational oil paint exposure in 2 factories were selected to conduct a questionnaire survey,biochemical detection and health examination.x2 test and unconditional logistic regression analysis were performed for the determinants analysis.Results A total of 525 oil paint workers completed the survey,in whom,55 (10.5％) were blood lead positive,the mean of blood lead concentration was (0.088 4 ± 0.053 9) mg/L,278 (52.95％) had nervous system like symptoms and 69 (13.14％) had peripheral neuropathy symptoms.Multinomial logistic regression analysis showed that working age (OR=1.827),drinking (OR=1.607),health status (OR=3.862),blood lead (OR=1.983) were risk factors for nervous system like symptoms.Working age (OR=2.282),and drinking (OR=2.704) were risk factors for peripheral neuropathy.Conclusion Low blood lead exposure might be associated with nervous system like symptoms.
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Objective To understand the relation between smoking and serum uric acid level and to investigate whether the ser-um uric acid has the correlation with the gender,age and smoking history.Methods The data of the gender,age,blood uric acid in1 847 individuals aged 20-80 years with the healthy physical examination and without underlying diseases were performed the statisti-cal analysis.Results With male and female as the research objects,the serum uric acid level of smokers were higher than that of non-smokers and occasional smokers,the difference was statistically significant;the serum uric acid level had no statistically signifi-cant difference between smokers and occasional smokers;the serum uric acid level had no statistically significant difference among non-smoking,occasional smoking and smoking groups for males as the research objects alone;to divide the male subjects into groups according to age,the serum uric acid level of non-smokers,occasional smokers and smokers were not statistically significant among all age groups;serum uric acid level showed the increasing trend with the increase of smoking history,but there was no statistically significant difference.Conclusion The serum uric acid level of smokers is significantly higher than that of non-smokers and occa-sional smokers with male and female as the research objects;the difference in serum uric acid level between smokers and occasional smokers has no statistical significance;excluding the gender factor interference,the serum uric acid level of males is not affected by smoking or age;serum uric acid mean value demonstrates the increasing trend with the increase of smoking history.
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Objective: To investigate the blood lead level (BLL) in painters and the inlfuential factors, and to provide the theory foundation for the prevention and control of lead poisoning in painters. Methods: A total of 535 painters from Sany Heavy Industry Company Limited and Xiangjiang Kansai Paint Corporation, who participated in the health examination during October 2012 and December 2012, were recruited and divided into a positive blood lead group and a negative blood lead group according to the level of blood lead. Questionnaires survey and physical/biochemical examinations were performed. Chi-square Test and multivariate logistic regression were used to estimate the factors that contributed to the elevated blood lead. Results: hTe results from 525 questionnaires and physical/ biochemical examination were collected. There were 55 workers (10.4%) whose BLL were 0.04 mg/L. The maximum value of BLLs was 0.35mg/L. hTe multivariate logistic regression showed that smoking (OR=2.424), smoking or eating in the workplace (OR=2.139), not washing hands before smoking or eating (OR=1.624), and the cycle of changing masks longer than two weeks (OR=2.158) were positively associated with BLL. Conclusion: Smoking, smoking or eating in the workplace, not washing hands before smoking or eating, and the cycle of changing masks longer than two weeks are risk factors for higher BLL.
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Objective To investigate the causes of death and influential factors for the prognosis of patients with strangulating intestinal obstruction. Method The clinical data of 103 cases of strangulating intestinal obstruction admitted from August 2001 to November 2009 were analyzed retrospectively. Results All patients were treated by surgery, 55 cases (53.4%) were diagnosed of strangulating intestinal obstruction before surgery, the remaining 48 cases (46.6%) were diagnosed underwent laparotomy. Ninety two cases were cured, 11 cases died,the mortality rate was 10.7%. Major causes of death were septic shock,multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS), acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and acute renal failure,septic shock was the most important independent factor that affect the prognosis. Conclusion Clear and early diagnosis,rational decision of the timing of surgery,and prompt and effective surgical treatment is the key to reduce mortality in strangulated intestinal obstruction.